![]() Though the task force did not study the United States, she observed these two factors emerging in the U.S. It means that every year that those features continue to exist in a particular country, it goes up by 4%.” “That seems low, but it’s actually not low. A country with these two factors of anocracy and factionalism are at a 4% chance of civil war each year, she said. The second factor was whether the citizens of these partial democracies had organized themselves politically around identity, “so rather than having political parties that were based on particular ideas, so conservative principles versus liberal principles, they had political parties that were formed pretty much exclusively around race, ethnicity, or religion,” Walter said. a full democracy or full autocracy, a country is more likely to face civil war, she said. If the democracy is weak, failing or new vs. Out of 38 factors that contribute to a country’s risk, data analysts identified two that are most important, Walter said. Walter was invited to join the Political Instability Task Force, a group of experts and analysts that determine a state’s risk of civil war. ➀ Look at failing democracies and factionalism. ![]() ![]() But could that talk become a reality? Barbara Walter, international affairs professor at the University of California, San Diego, took on that question in her book “ How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them.” Two days before the New York Times piece, she told Paul Miller fellows what factors to watch. “After Mar-a-Lago Search, Talk of ‘Civil War’ Is Flaring Online,” a New York Times headline stated last week amid other news outlets’ columns and articles on the subject. ![]()
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